from In numbers: The state of the climate ahead of Cop27 by Chloé Farand, Climate Change news
We’re headed for 2.4-2.8C of warming
The Emissions Gap report described progress made since the Cop26 climate talks in Glasgow as “woefully inadequate”.
The updated 2030 climate plans submitted this year reduce projected emissions in 2030 by less than 1%. Countries’ combined climate plans, including targets conditional on international finance, would reduce emissions by 10% by 2030 compared with projections based on current policies.
That’s far off track the 45% reductions scientists say are needed to keep 1.5C within reach.
Current policies would lead to 2.8C of warming by the end of the century. Countries’ unconditional commitments to 2030 would put the world on track for 2.6C of warming. If they deliver further emission cuts contingent on international finance, this would be reduced to 2.4C.
The report adds that investments worth at least $4-6 trillion are needed to decarbonise the global economy.
There have been baby steps on ambition
UN Climate Change’s assessment puts a more positive slant on the numbers but it’s conclusion is similar: “We are still nowhere near the scale and pace of emission reductions required to put us on track toward a 1.5 degrees Celsius world,” said UN Climate Change head Simon Stiell.
The 24 updated plans submitted this year have made a small difference, according to its assessment. Emissions are set to rise 10.6% by 2030 from 2010 levels. That’s slightly better the projected 13.7% increase last year. But not fast enough to keep in line with the Paris Agreement temperature goals.
The synthesis report analyses the contributions of 193 countries submitted to the UN between Cop26 and the 23 September. Together, they cover 94.9% of total global greenhouse gas.
Emissions keep rising
As the world continues to extract and burn fossil fuels, the World Meteorological Organization finds, once again, that the three main greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – reached new record highs in 2021.
From 2020 to 2021, carbon dioxide levels increased more rapidly than the average annual growth rate of the last decade, reaching 415.7 parts per million in the atmosphere. That’s a 149% increase from pre-industrial levels. Emissions have continued to rise this year.
Concentrations of methane in the atmosphere experienced the biggest year-on-year jump since records began nearly 40 years ago. Scientists aren’t sure why. WMO suggested this was caused by both human activities and natural variability.