Australia is not on track to meet its weak Paris Agreement commitments, with a lack of meaningful national climate policies resulting in emissions cuts that are too slow to achieve the Morrison government’s 2030 target, new analysis shows.
New analysis from consultancy Ndevr Environmental says that if Australia’s emissions trajectory remains on current trends, Australia will fall short of achieving the already meagre emissions reduction target set by the Morrison government.
“If Australia continues its current emissions trajectory, then by 2030, Australia would have cumulatively emitted over 125.4 MT CO2-e more than the Paris [Emissions Reduction Target] trajectory,” the Ndevr analysis says.
“This is equal to 25 per cent of Australia’s annual entire national emissions.”
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While the period was impacted by some Covid-19 lockdowns, the temporary relaxation of some restrictions in the last three months of 2021 contributed to a jump in transport emissions, with a resurgence in the number of Australians taking more trips leading to a 12 per cent increase, compared to the previous quarter.
Emissions from stationary use were also higher – representing emissions produced in the consumption of coal and gas in industrial operations like steelmaking – as activity returned to normal pre-Covid patterns, growing 2 per cent on the same quarter a year prior.
Emissions in the agricultural sector are also on the rise as drought conditions across Australia ease and farmers are able to grow herd numbers. Nvedr estimates that agricultural emissions were 5.2 per cent higher in the last three months of 2021 compared to a year prior.
Agricultural emissions in the 2021 year were a massive 15 per cent higher than in 2019 when drought devastated cattle numbers across large parts of Australia.
Australia has no economy-wide emissions reduction policy that would help drive cuts in sectors beyond the electricity sector.Australia will miss its weak 2030 emissions reduction targets, new data shows, Michael Mazengarb, RenewEconomy