Old_Notes

Very bad advice: $368b nuclear submarines and the Federal budget

Brian Toohey has some excellent advice on the matter of submarines…

An objective study would’ve shown the latest conventional ones are superior – they are much harder to detect and are operationally available far more often because they don’t suffer few serious maintenance problems. The program cost of twelve high quality conventional subs is only about $18 billion compared to $368 billion for 11 nuclear ones that repeatedly break down.

Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead gave an astonishing interview to the Guardian published on March 8 and 9 this year. Mead wrongly described Australia’s existing Collins class conventional submarines as “the most advanced in the world”. They are certainly not. They lack modern equipment such as fuel cells and advanced batteries that let submarines operate extremely quietly for sustained periods without having to rise to the surface to recharge their batteries every day or two, unlike the Collins class. Modern German, Japanese and South Korean ones are in this category. These submarines have low sustainment costs, unlike the Collins class where this burden has hit almost $700 million a year, not including fuel and crew costs. Taking the Collins out of service would free up billions in funding for new conventional submarines.

Because nuclear subs are significantly bigger than most conventional subs, they are easier to detect as they move through the earth’s magnetic field and the water column. Rapid advances in sensor power and computer processing increase the chances of subs’ detection – and destruction. Mead said he had taken account of the prospect oceans would become more transparent by 2050.His solution is to use underwater drones in places where you don’t want a nuclear submarine to be detected. That would be just about everywhere that the presence of nuclear submarine was supposed to be important. Apparently, the nuclear sub would control a drone at a safe distance.

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AUKUS and the implications for Australia’s domestic nuclear landscape

National anti-nuclear campaign online meeting: Saturday morning May 27

The purpose of this meeting is to strengthen our collective anti-nuclear campaign work with an emphasis on the risks that AUKUS will:

  • i) strengthen the push for domestic nuclear power (at the expense of the necessary and happening renewable energy transition)
  • ii) facilitate national and international nuclear waste dumping in Australia
  • iii) facilitate more uranium mining and potentially other steps in the nuclear fuel cycle such as uranium enrichment
  • iv) undermine federal Labor’s commitment to signing and ratifying the Treaty on the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
  • We won’t be discussing the deeper militarism and foreign policy concerns around AUKUS but will focus on the domestic nuclear sector risks outlined above.

People interested in and involved in anti-nuclear campaigning are invited to attend and help develop a platform to ring-fence and constrain the wider pro-nuclear momentum the AUKUS plan is generating.

Please RSVP to jim.green@foe.org.au or dave.sweeney@acf.org.au

Date and time: Saturday May 27, 10.30am to 12.30 pm eastern time, 10am SA, 8.30am WA. Zoom details below.

For background see the ACF paper: AUKUS and Australia’s Nuclear Landscape – ACF – May 2023  .
See also David Noonan’s paper on AUKUS and nuclear waste online.

Schedule: 4 x 30 minute sessions

Nuclear Power ? lead speakers Jim Green (FoE) and Trevor Gauld (ETU)

Waste

— proposed national dump at Kimba: speakers tbc

— intermediate and international waste: David Noonan
Uranium:  Mia Pepper (CCWA) and Dave Sweeney (ACF)
Weapons:  ICAN speaker/s

Zoom details

Join Zoom Meeting:

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/9256268989?pwd=OFVmNkhYdVFSWnhidUFXYVZGSmZxUT09

Meeting ID: 925 626 8989, Passcode: 3101952

New report from lock the gate…

A new report by renowned environmental scientist Emeritus Professor Ian Lowe finds that methane emissions from coal, oil and gas facilities make up ~70% of total greenhouse gas emissions covered under the federal Safeguard Mechanism (SGM), when the global warming impact is calculated over a 20-year period. Methane devastates the climate. It is 85 times more potent than CO2 over 20 years.

Accounting responsibly for the severe short-term warming impact of methane emissions shows that coal mining is by far the biggest emitter of all heavy industries covered by the Safeguard Mechanism in Australia currently, followed by oil and gas.

The report, “Short-term warming effect of methane from fossil fuels and implications for the Safeguard Mechanism”, also finds that the unlimited use of carbon offsets by methane-emitting facilities allowed under the SGM is irretrievably flawed. There is no technically feasible way to draw down methane from the atmosphere and no “like for like” offsetting is possible.

Download the full report here.

What happens when we can detect nuclear subs?

New details of the AUKUS defence and security pact have revealed Australia will buy three second-hand US Virginia-class submarines early next decade (and potentially two more), subject to approval by US Congress.

Australia will also build a fleet of eight nuclear-powered SSN-AUKUS boats at Adelaide’s Osborne Naval Shipyard. The first will be delivered by 2042, with five completed by the 2050s, and construction of the remaining three going into the 2060s.

It’s estimated the program will cost between A$268 billion and A$368 billion over the next three decades.

Make no mistake. Modern submarines, especially nuclear-powered ones, are one of the most potent and effective weapon systems in today’s world. That is, until they aren’t.

Our analysis shows they might soon be so easily detected they could become billion-dollar coffins.
[…]

Subs in the ocean are large, metallic anomalies that move in the upper portion of the water column. They produce more than sound. As they pass through the water, they disturb it and change its physical, chemical and biological signatures. They even disturb Earth’s magnetic field – and nuclear subs unavoidably emit radiation.

Science is learning to detect all these changes, to the point where the oceans of tomorrow may become “transparent”. The submarine era could follow the battleship era and fade into history.

— read the full article “Progress in detection tech could render submarines useless by the 2050s. What does it mean for the AUKUS pact?” at theconversation.com