Climate

“We must wean ourselves off fossil fuels”

Joshua S Hill, reports on the NZ climate plan:

New Zealand’s Labour government announced on Monday [may 16th] its “landmark” Emissions Reduction Plan which is designed to set the country on a pathway to meet its 2050 net-zero targets.

The Emissions Reduction Plan targets climate strategies across a range of sectors including transport, energy, waste, building and construction, and agriculture and forestry.

The multi-sector strategy is designed to meet emissions budgets while improving the ability of those relevant sectors to adapt to the effects of climate change.

[…] the Emissions Reduction Plan includes the launch of the Clean Car Upgrade program, which provides targeted assistance to lower- and middle-income households for the uptake of low-emission vehicles.

The EV subsidies are part of $NZ1.2 billion worth of transport sector-specific investments, which also include $NZ350 million for public transport, cycling, and pedestrian access, and an EV leasing scheme trial for low-income families.

The larger Emissions Reduction Plan also includes just over $NZ650 million to decarbonise industry over the next four years.

There is also a further $NZ18 million to fund the development of an energy strategy, a regulatory framework for offshore renewable energy, and a roadmap for the development and use of hydrogen.

On a larger scale, approximately $NZ1 billion will be spent over seven years to decarbonise industry
— more details at “We must wean ourselves off fossil fuels:” New Zealand launches “landmark” climate plan, reneweconomy.com.au

“Climate greatest threat to Australia’s security,” ex-defence chief says

National security experts have called on Australian voters to use the federal election to support candidates that back strong action on climate change, saying Australia has “squandered” the last two decades.
Speaking at the Smart Energy Council’s Emergency Fuel Summit in Sydney, retired admiral Chris Barrie described climate change as the single biggest threat to Australia’s national security.
Barrie currently serves on the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group and said the group saw national climate policy failures as putting Australia at risk.
“We consider that climate change now represents the greatest threat to the future and security of Australia,” Barrie said.
More details: Michael Mazengarb, renew Economy

Australia will miss its weak 2030 emissions reduction targets

Australia is not on track to meet its weak Paris Agreement commitments, with a lack of meaningful national climate policies resulting in emissions cuts that are too slow to achieve the Morrison government’s 2030 target, new analysis shows.

New analysis from consultancy Ndevr Environmental says that if Australia’s emissions trajectory remains on current trends, Australia will fall short of achieving the already meagre emissions reduction target set by the Morrison government.

“If Australia continues its current emissions trajectory, then by 2030, Australia would have cumulatively emitted over 125.4 MT CO2-e more than the Paris [Emissions Reduction Target] trajectory,” the Ndevr analysis says.

“This is equal to 25 per cent of Australia’s annual entire national emissions.”

[…]

While the period was impacted by some Covid-19 lockdowns, the temporary relaxation of some restrictions in the last three months of 2021 contributed to a jump in transport emissions, with a resurgence in the number of Australians taking more trips leading to a 12 per cent increase, compared to the previous quarter.

Emissions from stationary use were also higher – representing emissions produced in the consumption of coal and gas in industrial operations like steelmaking – as activity returned to normal pre-Covid patterns, growing 2 per cent on the same quarter a year prior.

Emissions in the agricultural sector are also on the rise as drought conditions across Australia ease and farmers are able to grow herd numbers. Nvedr estimates that agricultural emissions were 5.2 per cent higher in the last three months of 2021 compared to a year prior.

Agricultural emissions in the 2021 year were a massive 15 per cent higher than in 2019 when drought devastated cattle numbers across large parts of Australia.
Australia has no economy-wide emissions reduction policy that would help drive cuts in sectors beyond the electricity sector.

Australia will miss its weak 2030 emissions reduction targets, new data shows, Michael Mazengarb, RenewEconomy

 

Fossil fuels must go: IPCC

The central role that renewable energy technologies will play in keeping global warming within safe limits has been detailed in the latest working group report of the IPCC, published on Tuesday, which made a clarion call for “immediate and deep emissions reductions”.

It said these are necessary across all sectors of the global economy to stem rising greenhouse gas levels, and keep a global warming limit of 1.5 degrees within reach.

According to the IPCC, wind and solar technologies can deliver the most extensive potential cuts to greenhouse gas emissions by replacing fossil fuels in the global energy system, dwarfing the potential contribution of more costly technologies like carbon capture and storage.

“Large contributions with costs less than US$20 per tonne CO2 come from solar and wind energy, energy efficiency improvements, reduced conversion of natural ecosystems and methane emissions reductions,” the report says.

The IPCC said the dramatic reductions in the cost of wind, solar and battery storage technologies over the last decade meant they were already commercially viable and would be the key to decarbonising most of the world’s energy systems.

CSIRO adjunct science leader, and one of the co-authors of the report, professor Tommy Wiedmann, said these achievements made it possible for the world to halve greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the decade.

“Since 2010, the cost for renewable energy technology has fallen dramatically. Solar power is now 87 per cent cheaper, wind 55 per cent and batteries are now 85 per cent cheaper than ten years ago. The capacity of renewable energy installed has exceeded previous expectations,” professor Wiedmann told a media briefing.
“The IPCC report says that greenhouse gas emissions can be halved by 2030, which is what we need to achieve the Paris goals.”

“This can be done. It can be done with solar and wind replacing fossil fuel energy.

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Morrison backs fossil fuels over farmers

The Morrison government’s modelling of its emissions reduction “plan” reveals how the government has chosen fossil fuels over farmers, how it plans to grow – not shrink – Australia’s fossil gas industry and how it fails to deliver on a claimed commitment to reaching zero net emissions by 2050.

[…]

The government’s chosen path does not spell out how Australia would get to net zero emissions in 2050. Instead, a so-called “Plan” maps a path for Australia to cut domestic emissions by around 60 per cent, a further 25 per cent of Australia’s emissions being offset with credits purchased from overseas.

[…]

The modelling highlights how the government is counting on a substantial and ongoing role for Australia’s fossil fuel industries – with the gas industry expected to grow by 13 per cent out to 2050.
While the coal sector is projected to decline in coming decades, it will still be operating at around 50 per cent of its current capacity in 2050, with Australia maintaining its position as a major global exporter of both coal and gas.

[…] the Morrison government considered an alternate scenario, which evaluated the potential outcomes of Australia achieving the complete 100 per cent reduction in net emissions by 2050.

This scenario would see Australia increase its investment in domestic carbon sequestration, achieved primarily through increased re-vegetation of Australian land (and not the government’s favoured carbon capture and storage technology).

The modelling found that setting a more ambitious target – one that gets Australia all the way to full net zero by 2050 – would have a negligible impact on the Australian economy, amounting to just a 0.01 per cent change in GDP by 2050, which is meaningless for a projection three decades into the future.

The more ambitious scenario, as one might expect, has a more detrimental impact on the coal and gas sectors, with the modelling estimating that a complete net zero pathway would “have adverse impacts on fossil fuel based sectors, with $4.9 billion lower output value from coal and gas in 2050 relative to the Plan.”

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