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Australia is not on track to meet its weak Paris Agreement commitments, with a lack of meaningful national climate policies resulting in emissions cuts that are too slow to achieve the Morrison government’s 2030 target, new analysis shows.

New analysis from consultancy Ndevr Environmental says that if Australia’s emissions trajectory remains on current trends, Australia will fall short of achieving the already meagre emissions reduction target set by the Morrison government.

“If Australia continues its current emissions trajectory, then by 2030, Australia would have cumulatively emitted over 125.4 MT CO2-e more than the Paris [Emissions Reduction Target] trajectory,” the Ndevr analysis says.

“This is equal to 25 per cent of Australia’s annual entire national emissions.”

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While the period was impacted by some Covid-19 lockdowns, the temporary relaxation of some restrictions in the last three months of 2021 contributed to a jump in transport emissions, with a resurgence in the number of Australians taking more trips leading to a 12 per cent increase, compared to the previous quarter.

Emissions from stationary use were also higher – representing emissions produced in the consumption of coal and gas in industrial operations like steelmaking – as activity returned to normal pre-Covid patterns, growing 2 per cent on the same quarter a year prior.

Emissions in the agricultural sector are also on the rise as drought conditions across Australia ease and farmers are able to grow herd numbers. Nvedr estimates that agricultural emissions were 5.2 per cent higher in the last three months of 2021 compared to a year prior.

Agricultural emissions in the 2021 year were a massive 15 per cent higher than in 2019 when drought devastated cattle numbers across large parts of Australia.
Australia has no economy-wide emissions reduction policy that would help drive cuts in sectors beyond the electricity sector.

Australia will miss its weak 2030 emissions reduction targets, new data shows, Michael Mazengarb, RenewEconomy

The central role that renewable energy technologies will play in keeping global warming within safe limits has been detailed in the latest working group report of the IPCC, published on Tuesday, which made a clarion call for “immediate and deep emissions reductions”.

It said these are necessary across all sectors of the global economy to stem rising greenhouse gas levels, and keep a global warming limit of 1.5 degrees within reach.

According to the IPCC, wind and solar technologies can deliver the most extensive potential cuts to greenhouse gas emissions by replacing fossil fuels in the global energy system, dwarfing the potential contribution of more costly technologies like carbon capture and storage.

“Large contributions with costs less than US$20 per tonne CO2 come from solar and wind energy, energy efficiency improvements, reduced conversion of natural ecosystems and methane emissions reductions,” the report says.

The IPCC said the dramatic reductions in the cost of wind, solar and battery storage technologies over the last decade meant they were already commercially viable and would be the key to decarbonising most of the world’s energy systems.

CSIRO adjunct science leader, and one of the co-authors of the report, professor Tommy Wiedmann, said these achievements made it possible for the world to halve greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the decade.

“Since 2010, the cost for renewable energy technology has fallen dramatically. Solar power is now 87 per cent cheaper, wind 55 per cent and batteries are now 85 per cent cheaper than ten years ago. The capacity of renewable energy installed has exceeded previous expectations,” professor Wiedmann told a media briefing.
“The IPCC report says that greenhouse gas emissions can be halved by 2030, which is what we need to achieve the Paris goals.”

“This can be done. It can be done with solar and wind replacing fossil fuel energy.