The Morrison government’s modelling of its emissions reduction “plan” reveals how the government has chosen fossil fuels over farmers, how it plans to grow – not shrink – Australia’s fossil gas industry and how it fails to deliver on a claimed commitment to reaching zero net emissions by 2050.
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The government’s chosen path does not spell out how Australia would get to net zero emissions in 2050. Instead, a so-called “Plan” maps a path for Australia to cut domestic emissions by around 60 per cent, a further 25 per cent of Australia’s emissions being offset with credits purchased from overseas.
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The modelling highlights how the government is counting on a substantial and ongoing role for Australia’s fossil fuel industries – with the gas industry expected to grow by 13 per cent out to 2050.
While the coal sector is projected to decline in coming decades, it will still be operating at around 50 per cent of its current capacity in 2050, with Australia maintaining its position as a major global exporter of both coal and gas.[…] the Morrison government considered an alternate scenario, which evaluated the potential outcomes of Australia achieving the complete 100 per cent reduction in net emissions by 2050.
This scenario would see Australia increase its investment in domestic carbon sequestration, achieved primarily through increased re-vegetation of Australian land (and not the government’s favoured carbon capture and storage technology).
The modelling found that setting a more ambitious target – one that gets Australia all the way to full net zero by 2050 – would have a negligible impact on the Australian economy, amounting to just a 0.01 per cent change in GDP by 2050, which is meaningless for a projection three decades into the future.
The more ambitious scenario, as one might expect, has a more detrimental impact on the coal and gas sectors, with the modelling estimating that a complete net zero pathway would “have adverse impacts on fossil fuel based sectors, with $4.9 billion lower output value from coal and gas in 2050 relative to the Plan.”
Yet the modelling shows that this hit to the fossil fuel sector is almost entirely offset by increased benefits to farmers, saying that the 100 per cent net zero scenario “involves higher volumes of land sequestration, which provides $4.3 billion in additional revenue to participating land holders”.
It shows the Morrison government – and the Nationals party room – made a choice between two scenarios: adopt a “Plan” that cuts emissions by 85 per cent by 2050 and leaves the fossil fuel industry better off; or adopt a full net zero emissions target that negatively impacts the coal and gas sectors, but substantially boosts incomes for farmers, and has virtually no impact on the broader Australian economy.
—— full details in “Morrison chooses fossil fuels over farmers in “laughable” net zero modelling” by Michael Mazengarb, reneweconomy.com.au
